The superior sound, heat, and safety performance of tempered vacuum glass (TVG) is drawing increasing attention, but more research needs to be done on the material's impact resistance and impact failure. The mechanical properties of the glass during the impact process were studied using finite element software. Tests were used to confirm the viability of the numerical simulation of the impact of a falling ball on TVG. Based on the reliability theory, MATLAB software was used to analyze the failure probability of the glass when the falling ball impacted any position at various heights. The outcomes demonstrated that there was good agreement between the outcomes of the numerical simulation and those of the experiments. It was feasible to use the physical model of TVG falling ball impact to study the impact resistance of TVG. The Tresca stress on the glass was impacted by the collision, it first rose dramatically and then fell off quickly. The Tresca tension produced by the shattered glass grew as the height of the falling ball rose. When TVG was struck, the impact traveled in the form of stress waves in all directions. After the stress wave's crest emerged at the impact area, the Tresca stress immediately dropped. Due to the uneven stress distribution on the tempered vacuum glass in a static state, the height of the ultimate falling ball in different positions of impact resistance was very different, and the supporting position had the smallest impact resistance. When a falling ball was struck at random positions on TVG at any height, the failure probability of the glass was positively correlated with the height of the ball. The closer to the support position, the greater the likelihood that the impact failed TVG, while the failure probability of the falling ball impacting TVG was lowest in the middle of the two supports.